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Job losses tell us it's going to get worse

A main message of the jobs bloodbath this week.

It say this downturn will be long, hard and difficult and things will get worse.

Indeed the U.S. brokers Merrill Lynch now says he believes that the estimates for 2009 earnings of U.S. companies deal still too generous, that revenue will be lower.

The riders already believe that in December 2008 quarter revenues will be down 28%, so Merrill Lynch warning should be seen as a pointer to the future.

Any thought that going to be a quick exit / recovery later this year or in 2010, better think again.

The 100 000 job cuts echoed throughout the world on Monday came from retail, automobiles, heavy industry, light industry, technology, finance, insurance, technology and more.

On top of the cuts of the size of BHP Billiton last week, Intel and Microsoft, the path of losses is increasing rapidly, every day as employers, who have tried to keep staff in time as possible, they are forced to dive benefits to chop and cut deeply.

The company reported fourth quarter revenue damaged in the U.S. and Europe and used these as a basis for depression benefits of job cuts: Texas Instruments, Caterpillar and ING, for example (who was rescued by the Dutch government for the second time with a dodgy contract to purchase real estate assets and loans to maintain the economy).

The IMF saw the U.S. economy contracting by 1.6% this year, with the euro area decreased 2% and Japan 2.6%. Media reports said the Fund later this week, would reflect the global growth this year by 0.5% at best. The next year a 3% optimistic.

During the night the Japanese economy approve a modest stimulus package of about $ US75 billion and the German Council approved a package EUR 50 billion. The British government unveiled a package of assistance $ US4 billion-plus for its auto industry.

The objective of these packages is to try to halt the recession and keep as many people as possible in employment.

U.S. Companies and Europe more than 90,000 chopped jobs on Monday that also saw the collapse of the Icelandic government, General Motors cut more factories, declining sales and the second largest in Latin the collapse of the processor board with $ US5.6 billion in debt.

About 80 000 jobs were cut in the U.S., the rest of Europe.

A survey of private sector economists in the U.S. had bad news: they see as a worsening crisis. (Source)

The survey found that companies lay off more workers and collect more cash in the next 12 months. A large majority of the 105 economists believe the country's gross domestic product will continue to sink in 2009.

Respondents to the survey were increasingly pessimistic about the macroeconomic outlook. "78% of respondents expect U.S. real GDP to be lower in 2009 than in 2008."

"January 2009 NABE Industry Survey shows the worst business conditions since the survey began in 1982, confirming that the U.S. recession deepened in the fourth quarter of 2008, "said Sara Johnson, NABE economist.

Almost half (47%) of economists polled said the overall industry demand was falling, compared with 35% who said what in the October survey.

"Only 10% of respondents said that profit margins were increasing, compared to 52% who believe they are falling. And 38% of economists said the capital costs are falling, compared with only 15% in October.

"More than half the expected real GDP to fall by more than one percent this year, and only three percent project growth of more than one percent.

"The drop in profit margins outnumbered margins increased from five to one among the companies surveyed, the worst reading since 1982.

"Job losses accelerated in the fourth quarter, job prospects for the next six months has weakened further.

"With the deterioration of market prospects, the companies crashed the brakes on capital spending in the fourth quarter of 2008, the percentage of firms reducing capital costs (38%) was the largest in the history of the survey. "

The survey revealed that most respondents said that conditions credit affect business, because customers had less influence to purchase discretionary products. 78% of respondents said stricter conditions credit affected customers, and 52% said the credit crisis will directly harm the companies in their industries.

The rapidly deteriorating conditions world market are hammering business benefits.

"For the fourth consecutive quarter, reports of falling profit margins (52% of respondents) outnumbered reports of rising margins (10%). This was the worst showing since the spring of 1982.

Job losses accelerated in the fourth quarter, producing the worst result in 17 years the survey. 44% of companies in a cut, while only 14% said workers.

"Looking ahead, 39% of companies plan to reduce payrolls over the next six months, while 17% plan to increase employment. Only services sector continues to create jobs. "

In any case, which explains why so many large and small companies are cutting jobs more than one year after the U.S. economy officially went into this recession. Economic conditions have become so full, thanks to the credit crunch and drought, they have no other alternative.

Over time U.S. unemployment claims running at more than half a million a week for the past two months, there is no respite in the flow of bad news for U.S. workers, and increasingly used in Europe and Japan.

U.S. It seems certain that unemployment level rise of 7.2% in December, even as thousands of workers stop actively searching for the few jobs that are there.

But there was no Some rare good news in the battered U.S. housing sector with the National Association of Realtors reports an increase of 6.5% in the number of second-hand houses sold in December: 4.74 million unit annual rate. Economists had expected a 4.40 million unit pace euros.

U.S. Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% economists had expected a fall of equal size.

However, the Property Report "also had the well known bad news in housing prices in the U.S. national average up 15.3% in December from the same month in 2007, the biggest drop in history.

The financial crisis said the Prime Minister of Iceland, Geir Haarde, who announced his resignation after months of protests against economic policies that brought the country close to bankruptcy.

A coalition of green and left parties are expected wins the election later this year, which could lead to tension between the country, banks and the IMF. The Social Democrats to form a new government in interim.

But Canada will spend $ US5.7 billion in infrastructure over the next two years and officials said Canada budget deficits totaling $ US53 billion over the next two years.

And the Norwegian government presented a package of $ US2.87 billion fiscal stimulus to prevent a rise in unemployment. It is turning to the richness of its state fund to help boost spending, like Singapore.

But it was the balance of the job losses that staggered observers: the construction equipment giant Caterpillar fired 20 000 locations around the world to deal with sinking sales. Japanese archrival, Komatsu said a 15% drop in sales and a 42% drop in earnings in the year to 31 March.

New York, drug maker Pfizer announced it would acquire rival Wyeth for $ US68 billion ($ A104 million), and then announced to cut the combined workforce of both companies by 19,000, or 15%, and its own global workforce by 10%, or 8,000 jobs. It is to halve dividend to help finance this major problem. Investment banks will share $ US207 million dollars of this mega-merger.

Texas Instruments reported a big drop gains in 4th quarter, and plans to eliminate up to 3,400 jobs. And still on technology, IBM recognized American union, which last week reported profits better than expected fourth quarter, is preparing to cut at least 2500 jobs soon. .

General Motors fell an extra 2,000 jobs at two U.S. plants as it continues restructuring. U.S. telecommunications operator Sprint Nextel said it would cut 8,000 jobs, or 14% of its staff, and the top U.S. Home improvement retailer Home Depot is the sacrifice of 7,000 employees across the United States.

The great Dutch group financial services, ING, has received more help from their government to stay alive and is sacking thousands of people, like the great lighting and the group Philips technology.

All up, ING and Philips are shedding about 13,000 people from their businesses around the world to try to reduce costs sales and falling demand faster than expected.

And Corus, the Anglo-Dutch steel major is cutting 3,500 jobs across the world, some 2,000 of them in Britain, due to a sharp drop in demand for steel.

The steel company is the second largest in Europe now owned by the Indian company, Tata, which is struggling to keep alive Jaguar Land Rover in Britain ..

Another major U.S. company has collapsed: the Smufit-Stone Container Corp., a giant cartons and one of the world's largest recyclers of paper, has been broken in the U.S. with $ US5.6 billion in debt. He was unable to service amid a slowing economy and demand for their products.

The company, which is based in the U.S. but was founded in Ireland, filed for Chapter 11 protection in the U.S.: in addition to the $ US5.6 billion in debt the company had $ US7.5 billion in assets. 24 subsidiaries or affiliates also sought protection. It had net sales of $ US7.4 billion in 2007. (Source)

Smurfit-Stone, Chicago-based manufacturer is the second largest North American corrugated packaging, and has 22,000 employees in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Asia.

In Britain, two retail chains selling shoes went bankrupt during the night and its owner on the list, Stylo, was suspended from trading.

Barratts Shoes & Precious became the latest British chains into administration, putting the jobs of about 5.00 persons at risk. The 400 stores in the two chains will remain open for now.

They join the fashion chains, Dolcis, Stead & Simpson and faith that have all the administration. Woolworths has closed, with a loss of 30,000 jobs and the group of home improvement, MFI has failed. Retail Children UK Adams has been closed, while the furniture company, Land of Leather is a failure.

And a sure sign of the damage the credit crisis is making businesses can be seen in the 72% drop in operating income for Q4 American Express.

The credit card giant said quarterly earnings from continuing operations reached $ US238 million, compared with $ US858 million in the same quarter of 2007 (Source).

American Express received $ US3.4 million from U.S. Treasury bank rescue fund earlier this month as increased consumer defaults forced him to leave aside more reserves and the market for bonds backed by credit card debt froze.

The company has chopped 7,000 jobs, frozen wages and reduce management costs others to try to save $ US1.8 billion a year. For the year earnings fell 32% to $ US2.8 billion dollars.

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About the Author

Australasian Investment Review (AIR) is a free daily news service covering global financial markets with a focus on Australia, New Zealand and Asia. Each day our team of experienced journalists presents you with a concise digest of expert opinions and analysis on trends and backgrounds that matter in these markets. Subscriptions are free at aireview.com.au

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